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PostPosted: Thu Jul 23, 2020 11:28 pm 
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Now that gold and silver are both at multi year highs, and coppers recovered to pre pandemic prices, do we expect another price bump in the near future? I wasn't expecting the last one in, when was is, April?

(BoardSort prices are the one thing I don't have charts on, hopefully my new email alert service will let me start tracking changes on my chart app)

I thought that the market was too volatile for BS who I always considered a very conservative operator, to move prices UP in this environment but now here we are with AU knocking on all time highs

I'm not one to hold out for sake of speculation, I sell when I sell, but I'm curious

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 24, 2020 12:36 am 
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Do not discuss politics of any sort in the comments!
Some items are rising. Look at cpu rates.
Are prices rising? Yes. China locked down imports of scrap a while back. India has now stopped accepting inbound scrap materials. Russia has never had much of an effect on scrap prices in general because they don’t buy much from the outside and handle material in country. Easily done in a country that size in that many climates. That said Russia is now buying small (in industrial scale, not our terms of scale), amounts of foreign escrap. I know there’s movement in the Middle East (west Asia) but it’s more volatile than anyone actually comes out and says.

Personally, my own opinion.
Prices now, July/August aren’t going to have any significant change other than a slow trickle uprise.
I would look for a drop in most items heading into October before swing a quantifiable but not major rise in gold prior to the November elections.

From there I see two possibilities. Ignoring political idealism of any party: there are some basic facts to look at.
If Trump wins: gold continues on a slow and steady rise. Not by much though. Some people have said his win would bring us 25k gold rates. I don’t see a how or why. Gold’s current “meteoric” rise has little to do with Trump and more to do with self-adjustment in the market based on current supply chain vs demand.

If Biden wins: this is interesting. Two paths I see can happen.
To be clear at the start I definitely see a massive surge in gold as nationalist investors dump their USD holdings for commodities and crypto. That sudden rush, combined with the devaluation of the USD would push gold to records unfathomable four years ago.

From there two things can happen.
First
Biden turns America into 1950 Russia. He has gone on record during his VP term as being open to fixing the dollar to gold and returning to a gold standard. The first time someone brings this up in congress, the gold standard, watch gold deflate in hours! NOT days: hours. No mid or high level gold investor out there is unaware of “digital gold” and the Gold Coin Token (GCT, Digital Gold token/DGT) We’d have an immediate transference to DGT which can be converted to any other crypto currency or token in under 10 minutes. When the largest holders turn virtual holdings (in the banking sense: virtual holdings are your claim on something held by someone else), in the level of multi-millions of gold claims, into DGT and then dump it... gold in the double digits isn’t an unreasonable expectation. Equally watch every crypto and token fly through the roof. {side note, maybe McAfee can then no longer worry about eating his member}. The USD will drop parity to JPY levels in days. The US economy collapses and anarchy takes over with civil war.

OR
Far more likely:
Gold sees a series of major up and down flip flopping as international markets adjust to the new US President. Like it does for 3-5 months after each new President since we left the gold standard. DGT reaches parity with real gold and stays there. Gold continues on like it always has and always will.

Ultimately: it’s more about supply/demand as for scrap in general including gold. Locking out China and adjusting what any logical person of any political camp has admitted (yes MSNBC has said so just like FOX, etc) were lopsided trade agreements has raised prices in the US. This isn’t a 2020 issue nor a 2016, nor 2008... this was, is, a 1962 issue.
Our transaction to tariff rates are and have been horrible since long before I was born. Hell, slavery aside tariffs were a major thing that caused wars in this country through our history.
The north/south divide that eventually culminated with the civil war started over tariffs!
The (American) Irish rebellion? Tariffs.
The revolutionary war? Boston tea party. Called a tax was actually a tariff.
Colonial: the Italian repulsion. Tariffs on wine not waved for Catholics.
Janesville rebellion. Tariffs

Tariffs, and by extension supply and demand, control commodities pricing.

About the only thing I see in the next 6 months that would drastically change gold for the lower is
A) Trump kisses and makes up with China
B) Biden immediately pushes for the gold standard

Neither has any likely possibility of happening.

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PostPosted: Fri Jul 24, 2020 1:29 am 
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The reality is that parity in trade has brought US prices up on par with the supply reality vs the real value of the dollar.

This means that with no fear of influx in foreign metals US costs have risen.
This also means with no foreign competition US companies are under a much more focused microscope.
Pricing is adjusting to reality at the moment.
No artificial depreciation from China dumping metric tons of ore at the whim of a CEO.
And no jacking of price to the extreme since the metals market, though small by international volume, is massive in number of choices.

Iron has been a quarter cent per pound for nearly a decade.

Aluminium? Clean stock is flx between a quarter and 35 cents for over a decade. Here certain dirty sources are considerably more valuable

Stainless has more to do with nickel and chrome values than it does steel

Copper isn’t rising as much as returning to a realistic pricing.

Brass, like stainless is dependent on nickel, and tin; not copper

Tin, ... is up. Kool. Period. A footnote in history.

So what actually matters?
Gold... America has more gold than we need. We have apx 60% of the worlds refined gold. From electronics to jewellery to bars. Italy, Greece, and Myanmar have more physically available gold from monuments and temples. China, Russia, and some Central African nations have more ore. Maybe. But none of that is available tomorrow.

Silver. America has the LARGEST holding of refined silver in the world.

Copper. Makes up roughly 40% of escrap. Passed only by steel in weight. With no foreign buyers we have more than enough to maintain the status quo.

Titanium. America is #1 in processing here. We may not have the most but we know how to get the most from the ores we have.

Bronze is all over the place. Nobody really knows what to do with it for pricing. So I see it continuing to be 50č at yard A and $3.00 down the street at yard B.
Unless you’re making a bell, a boat, or steam punk furniture, bronze is one of those alloys we really have no use for in general society.

Tin continues to rise for one reason. People are hoarding canned food but not using it. When 50 cans of soup are purchased the store restocks it with 50 more. But now 100 cans are made but only 7 got recycled.
Tin is a difficult metal to refine and an easy one to recycle. If state shutdowns continue... watch tin be the new silver.

Honestly if I were given a choice to buy any material in 25lb bricks right now at today’s price. I’d buy tin. It’s going to be YEARS before the chain settles out again.
I said back in January or February hat Gold had zero chance of making $20k at the consumer level. I remain fixed on that.
Tin, however... if I had access to those 25lb bricks I’d buy 1000 right now and not think twice.

A point of fact: I’m buying tin bars (1lb certified) privately from a coin dealer who is selling them to me at 25% inflation over his original cost at a fixed rate. The price jumped enough he can’t just take it to a scrap yard. Selling as a commodity via scrap yard has a much larger tax penalty than the sales/income base he pays selling bars in the store. Like his store sales as an “investment” I need only pay tax on the increase in price (or if it tanks deduct my loss). If I took 1000 bars to the scrap yard next week the taxable income would be the whole price, not the difference. The difference being the much lower value as a deduction vs the investment gains variance. If anyone follows my poor wording of that.

As I also said in the past few months I’ve had no trouble buying a 20-pack case of water for a silver dollar. A few local private shops (smoke, liquor, grocery etc) now regularly advertise “credit, crypto, silver: no cash” it’s only a matter of time here where I am that tin pops up on the list. My tobacco guy takes stamped tin and copper bars based on XE pricing along with silver ingots and coins.

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-- my grades are my own and do not represent an offer from boardsort, nor are they guaranteed. Please keep that in mind.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 10:10 am 

Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:53 pm
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As always los you are a wealth of information. I’m still in disagreement on where the pm prices are going. You left out the facts about the worlds monetary system, that it is entirely fiat. It has no intrinsic value. It’s for lack of a better term like Monopoly money. To add more problems to it the interest rates are determined by the central banks and not the markets. Which means there is no true price discovery. Low interest prices means inflationary asset prices, and it is evident in the stock market and the real estate market. We have a everything bubble going on in the entire world and the bubbles are starting to pop. Government spending is getting more and more insane. Not just the us, but almost all governments.

IMO we will see triple digit silver, and gold in tens of thousands dollars, right now the physical market prices are climbing faster than the paper markets. And the reason will be inflation of the fiat currency. Central banks and governments want this to happen sooner than later. It is the only way to get rid of all the dept. History shows us this.

Copper is going to continue to rise if the governments continue to push for all electric cars.

Personally I’m hanging on to everything I see a day where a cherry picked large socket mother board will get the same price it is today per pound.


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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 12:07 pm 
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Totally agree on tin, if I had 25lb bars right now, I wouldn't be selling em thats for sure, I've got a decent pile of pewter I've pulled together for this reason, I also saved a jar of solder splatter from my test runs desoldering low grades (gave up on that though, transitioned to air chisel only, so versatile same tool takes off big transformers and little ic chips)

The chemistry of refining tin is top level frustrating, given how it behaves (namely forming metastannic acid or hydroxychloride every flipping time you want it in solution) I just can't wrap my head around it's recovery from tinplate cans

But I've long considered making by own coins or tokens out of tin, 1 oz tokens would be chunky but satisfying

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PostPosted: Sat Jul 25, 2020 2:39 pm 
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Kaiser613 wrote:
I just can't wrap my head around it's recovery from tinplate cans

Different melting points. It’s that simple.
Tin is so under valued at the moment it’s a joke. That’s because recycling is so easy. The problem is, as a few sources have estimated this month, the surge in buying of produced tin plate products, combined with international runs on active purification filters which have tin, has wiped out nearly half of the standard fluent supply. None of that is expected back into the marketplace for at least 6 months. Years before we return to 2019 levels.
If tin value was based on actual extraction and production value it’s closer to $12 per pound right now consumer value.
Some yards have added a category for tin plate cans now. The average price in bulk being about 20č per pound vs high grade steel at 11č. Enough difference for large yards to start sorting.

Mwfhawk
I don’t think we disagree as much as you look at we ad. Look at if.
I personally don’t think we should ever have left the silver standard. America had gold but the gold standard was an afterthought until 1847. The sudden influx of gold made small change lcd coins possible. And it stuck through the civil war since people had been using it for more than a decade by then. Making 1/4, 1/2, and 1oz tokens just as usable as coins.
By the time we reached the 1890s we went back to silver as the national base.
Silver fizzled out as backing in the Cold War years but still has a solid pegging.
The silver 10€ is technically worth 10€! (Or 12 IMU) A 1oz Chinese Sikver Panda is technically worth 12 IMU. As is the silver maple leaf.
A silver liberty is only $1 USD but is 12 IMU.
So as far as silver is concerned unless the United Nations dissolves silver isn’t going to have any real flux at the international level.
One IMU is 1/12 oz five 9 gold.

Gold is the one with some major question marks to it.
As I pointed out my thoughts above I do see ways the economy can collapse. But I don’t see it as likely.
Gold is acceptable as a unit of transaction most places where multiple ounces would be required.
You can deposit, sell, and buy, gold at most major brokerage and investment firms. Not GS and JPM do so. Wachovia as well. Stuart, ML...!
Many car dealerships will allow you to buy a car in marked certified gold coins and ingots. Larger firms will accept gold for a Mortgage payment.
We’re not talking scrap gold jewellery and pins here but marked certified gold and gold coins.

I also think we’re even less likely to see an international crash as countries move to digital money. Where real value (outside of fluxes) is based on energy and time. Japan, Thailand, Singapore, China, UAE, Saudi Arabia, France, Brazil, Columbia, ... all have or are working on a definite release and transition. In the US the IRS and Federal Reserve have a task force set up to research it.
Brave is creating the 4th browser war with its blockchain.
Bitcoin is accepted by international retail giants and mom and pop stores.
BTC and Lite coin are accepted at major tobacco and gas station chains.
Tron is “legal” payment in the entertainment back end. Though currently only with independent studios and individual productions. That’s due to the stigma of BitTorrent more than anything.

As such I have for some time now said that crypto isn’t much as an investment as much as an early adopter return on value. Exactly the same methodology as when the US mint sells bulk lots of special coins and sets to large distribution and dealership partnerships. Well above face value but well below retail.
Crypto has you paying into production now to build out volume for a hopeful return increase.

World wide collapse is a possibility but I don’t consider it likely. But I’m just me. A guy with his head stuck in the back side of DOS.

-- my opinions are my own and do not represent the opinions of any else unless you agree with me (kool!). And all this is just my opinions.

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-- my grades are my own and do not represent an offer from boardsort, nor are they guaranteed. Please keep that in mind.


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