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PostPosted: Tue Sep 01, 2020 1:09 pm 
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Gold consumer price is sitting at 1974.nn plus minus a few dollars.
I didn’t expect Japan to have a political crisis, YFI coin to pass 20,000, nor China to stand firm on Hong Kong rather than pull pack.

Actually I give the credit to YFI coin for the gold consumer price jump. That a valueless (in crypto terms) voting coin shot from pennies to the Bitcoin high in a week, and kept going...?
Nobody expected that anywhere.
When it reached a few bucks the chain managers took to the net and said “stop” ‘there’s no value here’ but it just kept going!
With that $12 billion was put into crypto over the last week; including staked and futures gold crypto.
The weekend pushed gold up nearly $90.

Just keep one thing in mind! None of these are stable. Crypto has zero backing.
As for gold; the first country with a GDP over a few billion to return to the gold standard will lock, or drop, that value quickly.

Take Japan as an easy idea. For many years very close parity with the US dollar
Take the yen, add a decimal two from the left and you have very close to the dollar price. 100¥ is $1
If they were to go to the GS with an internal 100000 coin pegged to 1 ounce of gold that locks Japanese gold to $1000 per ounce.
Don’t think for a second that won’t lock everyone.

Let’s look at the countries looking at a commodity backed digital currency.

China, gold
Japan, gold
South Korea, gold
Israel, gold
Vietnam, coffee KG
Singapore, gold
UAE, oil BRL
Iran, gold
Sweden, silver
UK, gold/silver
Ireland, silver
South Africa, gold
Saudi Arabia, gold
Kenya, diamonds (no idea how)
Columbia, coffee KG/gold
Italy, gold

And then there’s the EU looking at the euro going digital against silver. Since the Euro has always had a quasi-link with the €10 silver ounce ...!

Once it’s locked by law it’s locked. Inflation will happen around it but it looses all ability as an standard investment Instantly.

Interesting times we are in.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 10:30 am 

Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:53 pm
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If we go back to a gold standard the price of gold will be in the tens of thousands of dollars. There is way too much fiat garbage out there and they are making millions more each day.


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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 2:12 pm 
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Unfortunately is the inverse that normally happens.
To make an easy but unrealistic example...:
If the us went to the gold standard today and pegged the near $2000 gold ounce as a $1000 gold ounce coin:
The $2 loaf of bread would jump to $4 on the shelf over night.

However this country has a major problem. We have legal tender gold in current circulation.
Just because nobody spends gold eagles doesn’t change the legality.
About the only way the US could handle such a shift would be to deflate the dollar to real value based on the eagles.

Our legal system is set up to protect us from the government.
Congress can not demonetise an instrument of payment it has monetised. They’ve tried it multiple times and have been shut down by either the President or the court. Half cents. Fractional currency. Most recently gold and silver certificates. They were all on the chopping block but survived.

So we have a major problem.
We have two 1 ounce coins marked $50 and a third marked $100. Oops!
Not only that but we also have a platinum 1 ounce $100 coin.
And a palladium 1 ounce at $25?

You can’t make up a better cluster if this were a movie!

How do you match a $50 and $100 to the same weight. Declaring the $ at $75:1? Talk about messing with people’s heads on that split.
Something is going to have to be fixe/worked/fudged if we were to return to a pegged currency.

I just don’t see how we could.
And we’re in a world of hurt if we don’t and someone else does.
More than once US coins were of higher value than rate and were sold out of country.
It’s one of the reasons high face coins have had so many different purities.
When $10 coins could be sent to Spain for $15 that’s what happened. Same thing happened with silver multiple times. It’s a problem we have now with copper pennies. They are illegal to melt in the US. But not anywhere else. People can’t export them by law but banks do all the time. They (pennies) leave and never come back. Replacing a 1980 penny with a 2020 penny saves the mint 2-3 cents.
Replacing a penny not circulating costs the mint 3-5 cents.
Going to gold we’re going to loose a LOT of money. If $50 and $100 ounces are both worth $100, the $50 ounces will be heading over seas.
Reducing our reserves and causing even more of a crunch in the economy.

They could try a ban and recall on all gold but that has never worked in the past 3000 years of attempts. It definitely won’t work today! Only way they could recall gold coins is to override both the Numismatics protection acts and the historical scripts regulations.
Neither of which can happen by any mix of who is and could be in Congress end of the year.

In other words if a large nation returns to gold were in a world of hurt.

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PostPosted: Wed Sep 02, 2020 3:31 pm 

Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:53 pm
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But the alternative is hyperinflation.

I doubt if we would trade in coins. some people would. There would be receipts for gold and you can put any number on a receipt.

The financial market would not allow a huge deflation. Pensions, annuities, and 401K would crash.

They will try to inflate the money to get out of the dept, as they do it the public will lose trust in the dollar and then thats when they will have to peg the dollar to gold.


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PostPosted: Fri Sep 04, 2020 10:03 pm 
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Mwfhawk wrote:
They will try to inflate the money to get out of the dept, as they do it the public will lose trust in the dollar and then thats when they will have to peg the dollar to gold.


Fully agree. The question is how. International economic treaties and agreements put a mandate for a circulable method of trade for backed tender.

That’s why the EU has keep the €10 around. Just in case.
And why both the US and China cast fine gold coins. Just in case.

What many don’t realise is once we went off the gold and silver standards we still cast a copper round pattern yearly.
We also have made aluminium test coins. Some of which rocked the numismatic world when they wound up in public hands: bring legal proceedings and disagreements between the mint, the secret service, and congressional descendants.

My thought would be a $2000 gold certificate. Appears the best way to go at the moment.
Personally I’d like to see us return to the silver standard which is a far more stable commodity. A $20 silver coin and a $1 silver certificate worth 1/20 silver Troy ounce. It would also easily tether us to the EU €10. And the Canadian silver maple. The latter despite being a face coin of $1 was always issued as slightly above cost. Today that would be roughly $35cnd.

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PostPosted: Sun Sep 06, 2020 4:46 pm 

Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2015 10:53 pm
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A competing silver and gold standard just like says in the constitution.


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